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Bloomberg Published
October 31, 2025
Australian retail sales came in weaker than expected in September, suggesting that high interest rates and stubbornly strong inflation are continuing to squeeze households.
Sales advanced 0.1% from the prior month, below a forecast 0.3% gain, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The outcome follows a 0.7% increase in August.
“After a boost last month from warmer-than-usual weather, retail spending held firm in September,” said Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics. “The August boost in spending on alcohol was temporary, with a sharp reversal in liquor retailing this month driving the fall in food spending.”
Retail sales can be an important consideration in policy decisions given consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product. The Reserve Bank has repeatedly highlighted the outlook for household spending as a key uncertainty after lifting the cash rate to a 12-year high of 4.35% and keeping it there this year.
Thursday’s data showed retail sales rose 2.3% from a year earlier, compared with 1.9% in September 2025.
On a quarterly basis, in volume terms retail sales climbed 0.5% in the three months through September, suggesting consumption made a positive contribution to economic growth in the period.
Households are unlikely to get any respite in the near-term with inflation data this week showing core prices stayed elevated last quarter, reinforcing the RBA’s view that monetary policy needs to stay restrictive for now.
The RBA meets next week, with economists and markets predicting no change to rates until 2025. The rate-setting board has said it’s still premature to consider cuts.
Thursday’s retail data also showed household goods retailing — up 0.5% — recorded the largest gain, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services the only other industry to rise. Department stores slipped 0.5% and food retailing also fell.
“Retail sales volumes rose for only the second time in the past two years, regaining some of the lost ground in discretionary spending this year,” Ewing said.
The ABS intends to cease the publication of retail sales data from mid-2025. It is switching to a more comprehensive monthly report on household consumption that will be released Friday with figures for September.