Scientists sound the alarm: Orbital collapse due to space debris looms closer

April 12,TG盗号系统VIP免杀技术 2025  11:50

The space around Earth is turning into a junkyard, and it’s no longer just a problem—it’s a threat to humanity’s future in space. The European Space Agency (ESA) has issued a stark warning in its latest report: the situation with space debris has reached a critical tipping point, and without urgent action, Earth’s orbit could become unusable. The report, published on ESA’s website, offers sobering conclusions that demand attention.

The Scale of the Crisis

According to ESA, there are about 40,000 tracked objects in Earth’s orbit, but only 11,000 are operational satellites. The rest is debris: defunct spacecraft, fragments from explosions, and collision wreckage. Counting objects larger than 10 cm, the tally rises to 54,000, while tiny particles (under 1 cm) number in the hundreds of millions. These figures are just the tip of the iceberg—most small debris is invisible to radar.

In 2025 alone, 11 uncontrolled breakups added 2,633 new fragments to the orbital clutter. Each incident is a ticking time bomb, fueling a growing chaos.

Kessler Syndrome: A Catastrophe in Motion

The report highlights the “Kessler Syndrome,” a scenario envisioned by astrophysicist Donald Kessler in 1978. He warned that collisions in orbit could trigger a chain reaction: one impact spawns hundreds of fragments, which then generate thousands more, and so on. ESA confirms this nightmare is already unfolding. Even if all launches stopped tomorrow, the debris population would keep growing on its own.

With orbital speeds reaching 28,000 km/h, even a pea-sized fragment becomes a lethal projectile. It could puncture an ISS solar panel or cripple a communications satellite. In 2025, a 5-mm piece punched a hole in the station’s robotic arm—just one of many near-misses.

Why It’s a Problem Now

Space debris doesn’t just threaten the ISS—it endangers the entire infrastructure: GPS, weather systems, and internet networks like Starlink. In 2025, SpaceX had to maneuver its satellites over 25,000 times to dodge collisions. Meanwhile, millions of untracked particles (1–10 mm) turn every orbit into a game of Russian roulette.

ESA notes that 90% of current efforts focus on prevention: satellites are now designed to burn up in the atmosphere post-mission. But this does nothing for the existing mess. Cleanup tech—like magnetic nets or lasers—remains embryonic. The ClearSpace-1 mission, launched in 2025, aims to remove a single large fragment, but it’s a drop in the bucket.

What Happens If We Do Nothing?

Scientists paint a grim picture: in 10–15 years, low Earth orbit (200–2,000 km) could become a “minefield.” Every launch would carry heightened risk, and satellite insurance costs would skyrocket. In the worst case, humanity could lose access to space for decades—a collapse that would cripple research, communications, and weather forecasting.

The ISS already adjusts its path to avoid debris—five such maneuvers occurred in 2025. But as junk multiplies, dodging it gets harder, and repairs in space cost billions.

Is There a Way Out?

ESA and NASA call for global teamwork. Proposed solutions include:

• Large-Scale Cleanup:Missions like Japan’s Kounotori or Europe’s RemoveDEBRIS.
• Stricter Rules:Mandating deorbiting within 5–10 years post-mission for new satellites.
• Global Oversight:Unified standards for all nations and private firms.

But time’s running out. ESA stresses that delay could make action futile within a decade. Space debris isn’t a sci-fi trope—it’s a real consequence of human activity.

The Bottom Line

Orbital collapse isn’t a distant threat—it’s already underway. Hundreds of millions of fragments orbiting Earth are the legacy of 60 years of space exploration, and they jeopardize our future. ESA’s scientists warn: without swift action, we risk losing space as a resource. The question isn’t whether disaster looms, but how soon—and whether we can stop it in time.