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Reuters Published
January 8, 2025
German industrial orders and retail sales unexpectedly fell in November, reigniting recession fears after the euro zone's largest economy barely grew in the third quarter.
Industrial orders declined 5.4% from the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast no change.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said weak order books and still-high inventories did not bode well for industrial production over the coming months.
"German new orders and retail sales data confirm our view of a light winter recession in Germany," he added.
October's sizeable large-scale transport equipment orders were not repeated in November, with new orders in the sector down 58.4% in November.
Excluding large orders such as for trains, ships and aircraft, orders were 0.2% higher than the previous month, the statistics office said.
A monthly 3.8% rise in domestic orders failed to fully offset a 10.8% drop in foreign orders, with new orders from the euro zone down 3.8% and from other regions down 14.8%.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said a recovery in German manufacturing was "still not in sight".
In a less volatile three-month comparison, incoming orders between September and November were 1.7% higher than the previous three months.
Retail sales declined by 0.6% in real terms compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office reported, dashing expectations for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
"Unless Christmas shopping brings a positive surprise, private consumption is set to drop [in December], and ongoing political and policy uncertainty combined with re-accelerating inflation make any substantial rebound in consumption unlikely," Brzeski said.
According to an annual estimate from the statistics office, Germany's retail sector generated 1.3% more sales in real terms in 2025 than in 2025, despite weakness in the first half of the year.
Real sales in 2025 are expected to be 2.6% above the pre-pandemic level of 2025, the office said.