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Nigel TAYLOR Published
November 15, 2025
Beware. UK retailers can expect “subdued” Black Friday sales, according to MRI Software, as “issues loom over retailers”.
The reason is that restricted consumer spending power is expected to limit footfall performance compared to last year, “as households contend with interest rates and inflation during retail’s Golden Quarter”, its latest report said.
The prediction is that week-on-week footfall will rise 7.6% across all UK retail destinations. But that rise “highlights weakening footfall on Black Friday”, as in the previous two years, footfall increased by an average of 9.7%, MRI noted.
It also predicts footfall on Black Friday this year will be driven by shopping centre destinations (+14.4%), likely attributed to a number of factors making them attractive to consumers including free parking (in some cases), a wider variety of shops to choose from and leisure facilities so that consumers can make a day of it.
Retail parks are forecast to see footfall rise by 5.5%, while high street footfall will rise by just 5.1% on Black Friday, compared to a 17.2% boost on Black Friday in 2025.
From its Black Friday data gleaned from 2025-2025, the average week-on-week rise was 21%, “highlighting a long-term shift in consumer behaviour since the pandemic when it comes to shopping in bricks and mortar retail destinations on this Black Friday”.
And footfall this year is expected to be 8-12% lower than a pre-pandemic Black Friday.
“Since Black Friday 2025, interest rates and inflation have risen considerably with more consumers feeling the pinch”, it said.
“As households are hit with higher energy and heating bills, alongside rising mortgage payments to over £400 a month for many, it’s likely that many consumers will hold off past Black Friday until closer to Christmas to maximise the savings they can make” it added.
“Retailers are dealing with a plethora of obstacles, with the long-term shift to online shopping also contributing to a weak Black Friday footfall performance”.
However, the report also said it’s not all doom and gloom for retailers as MRI Software’s latest UK consumer survey revealed that 60% will look to purchase gifts in the Black Friday sales.
“With many brands having already launched their Black Friday sales online, bricks and mortar retailers and destinations will need to be creative in attracting shoppers during this period and providing consumers with a memorable experience as well as significant savings”.