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Sandra Halliday Published
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Retail sales volumes fell in the year to September for a fifth consecutive month, but at a much slower rate than last month, according to the latest monthly CBI Distributive Trades Survey that was released on Monday.
And stores are expecting the recent downturn in sales volumes to moderate even further next month.
The survey is based on the views of a limited number of retailers (47 of them) and doesn’t offer specific sales growth (or lack of) figures. But as the earliest of the monthly reports, it’s a useful indicator of what’s happening at retail.
So what does the report reveal? The retail sales volumes fall in the year to September saw a weighted balance of -14%, compared to -44% in the year to August, so the slowdown in the decline is very marked. Retailers also expect the downturn in sales volumes to be only -8% next month. The worst news is that clothing spending fell sharply, seeing a weighted balance of -66%.
A word of explanation here. The balance figure is the weighted difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease. So it means more retailers reported volumes falling for the month than said their sales volumes rose or stayed flat, but fewer of them said that than had done so in August.
Sales volumes were seen as marginally above average for the time of year (+5% from -9% in August). And retailers expect sales to be in line with seasonal norms next month (+2%).
Internet sales volumes were broadly unchanged in the year to September (-3%), but are expected to fall steeply next month (-36%).
Martin Sartorius, CBI Principal Economist, said: “There are some elements of optimism in our survey with retailers expecting the recent fall in sales to continue to ease. Last week’s lower-than-expected inflation figures, which in turn will ease pressure on household budgets, will also give retailers some hope going into the crucial autumn and winter trading period.
“However, higher oil and fuel prices could mean sticky inflation is with us for a while longer. There is an opportunity in the forthcoming Autumn Statement for policy makers to create a business environment for growth – whether it’s through an investment-focused tax regime or helping firms find or re-skill the staff they need through a reformed Apprenticeship Levy.”