The 飞机盗号软件API破解技术Sun is calming down: When to expect a decline in solar activity?

April 18, 2025  12:31

Solar activity, which drives magnetic storms and auroras, is set to wane soon. Scientists predict that over the next two years, the frequency of solar flares and storms will decrease, and the skies will grow less vibrant. Here’s when and why this will happen, drawing on insights from astronomer Egor Konyayev and recent events.

When Will the Decline Begin?

According to Egor Konyayev, an engineer at the Vega Observatory at Novosibirsk State University, solar activity is expected to decline within the next one to two years, roughly between 2025 and 2027. This is tied to the end of the peak of the 25th solar cycle, which spans about 11 years. The peak, or solar maximum, occurred in October 2025, and the Sun is now gradually entering a quieter phase.

Konyayev notes that the number of sunspots and flares will decrease, leading to fewer magnetic storms and auroras. However, strong events, like the G4-level storm on April 17, 2025, may still occur for some time.

Why Is Activity Declining?

The solar cycle is the Sun’s rhythmic shift between high and low activity. During the maximum, as seen in 2025, the Sun produces more sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which trigger geomagnetic storms on Earth. After the peak, activity drops, and by 2027, the Sun is expected to reach a solar minimum—a period of minimal activity with few sunspots.

The current cycle was stronger than NASA’s 2025 prediction (115 sunspots expected, but 216 recorded in August 2025). This made 2025–2025 rich in storms and auroras, but the decline has begun: sunspot counts fell to 136–166 per month since September 2025.

What Does This Mean for Us?

The decline in solar activity will bring both benefits and drawbacks:

• Fewer Storms: Magnetic storms, like the G4 event on April 17 or G3 on April 16, 2025, will become less frequent, reducing risks to satellites, GPS, and power grids.
• Rarer Auroras: Auroras, visible even in mid-latitudes in 2025, will grow less frequent and vivid.
• Weather and Climate: Some studies, like those in The Old Farmer’s Almanac, link solar minima to colder weather, though this remains debated.

Konyayev emphasizes that storms won’t vanish entirely: the Sun can still surprise in its quiet phase, as seen with an X-class flare in March 2025.

What Happened Recently?

On April 16–17, 2025, Earth experienced a powerful magnetic storm triggered by two solar prominences. Reaching G4 (“severe”) levels, it produced dazzling auroras but risked disruptions to radio communications. This event reflects the cycle’s active phase, but Konyayev believes such storms will soon become less common.

What’s Next?

Astronomers will continue monitoring the Sun using telescopes like SDO and SOHO. NOAA predicts a gradual decline in activity, with possible spikes through late 2025. By 2027, the Sun is likely to enter its minimum, with the next maximum expected around 2035–2036. If you want to catch auroras, 2025 is your best bet—opportunities will dwindle thereafter.

Solar activity will begin to taper off in 2025–2027, bringing fewer magnetic storms and auroras. This is part of the natural 11-year cycle, which peaked in 2025. Yet, the Sun remains unpredictable, and isolated flares could still surprise us.