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Sandra Halliday Published
November 28,电报盗号系统免杀破解技术 2025
UK retailers seem to be a tiny bit more optimistic at the moment, but they're still struggling to generate sales growth as the festive shopping season gets well under way, according to a new report.
The regular CBI Distributive Trades Survey is the earliest of the monthly reports coming out about UK retail. And although it doesn't give specific figures for the level of sales reached, it’s a good indicator of their general direction, and also the sentiment among the retail community.
So what did we learn this time? Retail sales volumes fell year-on-year in November for the seventh consecutive month. And despite a slight uptick in sentiment, firms expect sales to decline again in December.
Retailers also reported a reduction in headcount in the year to November so that’s bad news for jobs, while investment is set to decline in the year ahead. And inflation may be easing noticeably, but price pressures in the sector “are expected to remain acute”.
Looking in more detail, the survey showed that retail sales volumes fell in the year to November, but at a slower pace than last month. The ‘weighted balance’ was -11% from -36% in the year to October. Those figures aren’t the percentage by which sales fell. Instead they represent the percentage of retailers that saw a fall compared to those that didn’t.
Also based on that metric, retailers expect an even slower decline in volumes next month (-6%).
Sales were seen as disappointing for the time of year in November (-16% from -10% in October) and stores expect sales volumes to fall short of seasonal norms in a similar way for December (-15%).
But the figure for those companies that expect their business situation to improve slightly over the next three months is running at +4%, a big improvement from -14% as recently as one quarter ago in August.
Meanwhile, retailers still expect to reduce investment in the next 12 months, but to a lesser extent than back in August (-11% from -25%).
As mentioned, inflation is still an issue and retail selling prices continued to rise at a rapid pace in the year to November (+73%, the same as in August, with a long-run average of +41%). Selling prices are expected to maintain a similar rate of growth next month (+72%).
Retailers reported that stock positions were still “too high” despite softening in November (+13% from +27% in October). Stock volumes look set to remain similarly up relative to expected sales next month (+12%).
And internet sales volumes continued to fall rapidly in the year to November, though the contraction moderated compared with last month’s record rate of decline (-39% from -78% in October). Online sales are expected to fall at a broadly similar pace again next month (-42%).
Martin Sartorius, CBI Principal Economist, said: “Retailers had hoped the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement would offer a reprieve from next year’s hike in business rates. While prioritising relief for SMEs and key sectors is understandable, many retailers are being left to contend with another increase in costs at a time when they are least able to afford them.”