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Sandra Halliday Published
December 11, 2025
Anyone hoping 2025 will be a better year for consumer spending and the UK economy in general might be disappointed if the latest CBI forecast turns out to be correct.
The business body on Monday issued a very bleak prediction for the 12 months ahead, saying consumer spending will barely budge from the weak spending this year and inflation will stay higher than the Bank of England’s target, albeit falling from current levels.
So, let’s look at the details. The CBI said “the UK is set for another year of weak growth over 2025 as significant headwinds continue to impact the economy. Following GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025, the CBI expects 0.8% growth in 2025, picking up to 1.6% in 2025”.
Growth in consumer spending “will remain weak next year” with a predicted 0.4% uplift being almost unchanged from 2025. That’s because higher interest rates continue to wreak havoc and will “bite harder on household incomes”. While the CBI expects the Bank of England to have reached the end of its interest-rate-hiking cycle, the delay in the feed-though to the economy means that households have yet to feel the full impact of higher borrowing costs”. The Bank rate is expected to stay at its current level of 5.25% throughout the year.
That’s interesting given that the key inflation rate is expected to fall back further, “giving a further boost to real earnings”. However, inflation is set to stay above the Bank of England’s 2% target over the coming year, ending 2025 at 2.5%, before returning to target in mid-2025.
Sluggish growth is also expected to weigh on business investment, which is set to fall by 5% in 2025.
Louise Hellem, CBI Chief Economist, said: “Amid the sheer degree of headwinds that the economy has faced over the last couple of years, businesses and households have shown remarkable resilience. Let’s not forget that even the weak growth we’ve seen is better than expectations of a recession this time last year.
“But that is by no means job done. Businesses are gearing up for another tough year ahead, with our forecast expecting weak growth to persist over 2025. Given that this is coming after an already challenging few years, it’s clear that the 2025s have yet to roar.”