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Sandra Halliday Published
November 7, 2025
Two reports on Tuesday continued to highlight the tough times retailers are facing at present and the risk of a recession with one focused on consumer spending and another on specific retail sales. Either way, they were both less than cheerful.
The consumer spending report was the regular monthly one from Barclays and it said half of Britons are cutting back on discretionary purchases to help offset rising energy bills, while October’s unseasonably warm weather delayed new clothing purchases.
It said consumer card spending grew just 2.6% year-on-year in October – “noticeably less than the latest CPIH inflation rate of 6.3% and the smallest uplift since September 2025” when it was 1.8%.
That came as consumer concerns over rising energy bills and outgoing costs ahead of the festive period “hindered” discretionary spending.
The big story was spending on non-essential items growing just 2%, also the smallest rise since 1.1% in September 2025.
A key reason for this was the unusually warm October weather that delayed sales of seasonal items such as winter coats and sweaters, contributing to the fourth consecutive monthly decline at clothing retailers (they were down 3%).
At the same time, as many as 47% of consumers said they’re planning to cut down on discretionary spending so they can afford their energy bills throughout the autumn and winter, with buying new clothes and accessories “for day-to-day wear” (50%) among the most common cutbacks. That may be good news for special occasion clothes like partywear, however, and for holiday clothing as people are still enthusiastically booking trips away.
Looking ahead, 36% expect that this Christmas will be more expensive than in 2025, and 21% have concerns about keeping up with outgoing costs during the festive period. As a result of the rising cost-of-living, 37% expect they will spend less on Christmas gifts this year, while just 13% anticipate spending more.
Meanwhile, the latest British Retail Consortium-KPMG specific Retail Sales Monitor (that is, in-store and e-store sales as opposed to consumer spending in general) included still more lacklustre figures.
Unadjusted for inflation, the figures marked a likely drop in sales volumes given that inflation remains high by historic standards and sales rises came in shy of the inflation figure last month.
The BRC said the first four weeks of October saw UK total retail sales rising 2.5%, against growth of 1.6% in October 2025. This was below the three-month average growth of 3.1% and the 12-month average growth of 4.2%.
Worse still, non-food sales fell 1% over the three-months to October and also declined during the month specifically.
And e-tailers weren’t happy either as the proportion of non-food items bought online (known as the penetration rate) edged down to 36.5% last month from 36.6% a year earlier.
BRC chief Helen Dickinson blamed ongoing high mortgage and rental costs, as well as delayed Christmas spending in the hopes of grabbing a bargain in the upcoming Black Friday sales.
But she added that “the cost-of-living squeeze meant more was spent on lower-price indulgences, such as beauty products – the so-called Lipstick Effect”. Meanwhile, the late arrival of some colder weather “helped to boost fashion sales, particularly for outdoor wear”.
Paul Martin, UK Head of Retail at KPMG, highlighted the fact that “food and drink and health and beauty categories continued to drive sales, while a mild October saw consumers put off shopping trips to replenish winter wardrobes” and said he thought month “could herald the most competitive Black Friday period that we’ve seen in a while”.