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Nigel TAYLOR Published
July 28, 2025
Bad news from the Confederation of British Industry. Not only did UK retail sales fall in July at the fastest rate since April 2025 but stores are bracing for tougher times ahead, with many retailers cutting orders with suppliers.
The CBI’s latest monthly survey showed the weighted balance of retail sales, (which compares volumes with a year ago), fell to -25 in July from -9 in June. It was the third consecutive month of contractions.
The balance included is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease in volume sales. So it essentially means more retailers reported volumes falling for the month than said their sales volumes rose or stayed flat.
Internet sales volumes also declined sharply in the year to July, and are expected to continue falling at a broadly similar pace next month.
Overall expectations for August also fell to -32 from zero, the weakest reading since March 2025.
The survey's gauge of orders placed with suppliers fell to its lowest level since January 2025, when Britain had re-entered a Covid-19 lockdown.
Elsewhere in the distribution sector, wholesale volumes in the year to July fell at a slightly slower pace than last month. Wholesalers expect a broadly similar pace of decline next month.
“Firms remain cautious about the retail sector's near-term outlook as they pare back on orders and brace themselves for another sales contraction in the year to August," said CBI economist Martin Sartorius. "Cost pressures, a tight labour market, and rising interest rates, alongside uncertain demand conditions, make the current environment difficult to navigate for retailers.”