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Sandra Halliday Published
February 26, 2025
The slump in retail sales “eased’ this month, according to the earliest of the monthly retail sector reports that have come through. The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey showed retail sales in the year to February fell at modest pace following a sharp drop last month.
It was the slowest decline in year-on-year sales over the 10-month run of falls so far, which may not exactly be enough to break out the party poppers. But when looking for good news among the bad, it offers a little encouragement.
Looking ahead though, sales are set to contract “at a somewhat faster pace next month”.
So let's dig into the detail. The weighted balance showed retail sales at -7%. Explaining exactly what the weighted balance means, the figure isn’t the percentage by which sales fell. Instead it represents the percentage of retailers that saw a fall compared to those that didn’t.
That's why the figure for January had been -50%, meaning half of retailers saw sales falling to some degree.
And for March, retailers expect the weighted balance to be -15%. While that's worse than the -7% this time, at least it's nowhere near the massive negative figure in January.
Sales in February were deemed to be in line with average for the time of year (-1% from -47% in January), after having stayed below seasonal norms in the four months prior. Retailers expect sales to be below seasonal averages next month (-9%).
Internet retail sales in the year to February rose for the first time in eight months (up 4% from a negative 54% in January). In contrast to the expected decline in total sales, internet sales are set to grow at a much faster pace next month with the weighted balance being +37%.
For the clothing sector specifically there was both bad news and slightly less bad news. The weighted balance in February was -73%, which is pretty poor and suggest almost three-quarters of retailers saw falling sales. But compared to the -86% in January and -93% in December, it could be interpreted as a little more upbeat.