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Nigel TAYLOR Published
November 19, 2025
As if we didn’t know, it’s going to be a bargain-hunting, credit-funded Christmas for many UK consumers.
And although total related spending both online and in-store across November and December is expected to rise 3.6% year-on-year to £94.5 billion, this year’s growth is being driven solely by inflation, according to Mintel.
In addition, total sales by volume are forecast to decline by 2.9% as the market is hit by reduced discretionary spending.
Just over half of consumers (51%) say that financial concerns will mean their households keep to a stricter budget this season, Mintel's latest research shows.
A cautious 56% of consumers say that news stories about ‘shrinkflation’ mean they will be looking more closely at prices this Christmas. Meanwhile, 28% of consumers expect to pay for more Christmas spending on credit this year, up from 22% in 2025.
And the research reveals that 25% of Britons expect to wait until Black Friday promotions/discounts before buying festive gifts.
Nick Carroll, Category Director of Mintel Retail Insights, said: “There’s little doubt that festive 2025 will be a challenging period for retailers. However, there are signs of a well-timed recovery in confidence ahead of the big day.
“Several weeks ahead of Christmas Day, shoppers may be cautious about their spending intentions but, as history shows, once the festive feeling takes over some caution is thrown to the wind. This should mean more opportunity for retailers this December compared to last year.”
Carroll added: “A recovery in confidence is being driven by higher earners, while lower earners are still facing a further year of financial pressures. This will mean a highly polarised spending period, with value still high on the agenda for many. This environment lends itself well to Black Friday promotions, and the earlier launching of deals and the scale of retailers already engaging in the event mean all signs point to the event being as large as ever.”
Customers will be looking to keep a lid on spending while having a good time, and this makes it more tempting to splash out on lower-priced pick-me-ups, such as value fashion.