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Nigel TAYLOR Published
December 18, 2025
UK retailers can anticipate a tough start to the New Year with consumer demand expecting to weaken after the excesses of Christmas, according to the KPMG/RetailNext Retail Health Index (RHI).
The group of industry experts who analyse the health of the retail sector said increased costs, including mounting mortgage and rental costs, mean consumers are likely to reduce their spending during the first months of 2025.
“With early indications of a disappointing Christmas trading period for some retailers, particularly in non-food categories, and food retailers resorting to increasing the level of promotions in order to drive sales this year, there will be very little respite for the retail sector as it enters 2025,” the report said.
It concluded that beleaguered consumers will “hit the pause button on spending even further in the opening months of 2025. Despite having more money in their pockets than they did in Q1 23 due to reductions in National Insurance Contributions, wage growth outstripping inflation and lower fuel bills, which has helped to boost household income slightly year on year, consumer sentiment is likely to remain low as the mood music around an ailing economy impacts their willingness to spend”.
Paul Martin, the UK head of retail at advisory firm KPMG, who also sits on the panel, noted the run-up to Christmas has been “pretty subdued”.
He added: “Despite Black Friday sales going deeper and lasting longer than last year, indicators so far are that Christmas trading this year has been one of the worst since the pandemic hit, and although there is still all to play for in the final weeks of December, it is looking as if it’s too late turn fortunes around. Sales of non-essential goods have been deteriorating rapidly and will continue to do so as consumers keep an even tighter grip on the household purse strings.
“It has taken a long time for the economic challenges to feed through to consumer resilience, but it looks as if it’s happening now, and is set to stay with us, at least until spring. The UK retail sector will likely continue to see significant downward pressures on demand, and margin, for the early part of 2025 but this could turn a corner by April, just as hefty increases in minimum wage and business rates hit the bottom line. Retailers will be holding their breath for some good news in the Chancellor’s Budget in March.
“Retailers have been remarkably resilient over the last few years and are now well versed in being agile to cope with economic shocks and changing consumer demands. Pressures on consumers from high inflation may be easing, but the economy faces headwinds from the lagged impact of monetary policy tightening and rigid fiscal policy settings. For the next few months, we expect the retail sector to continue to tread water as it moves from dealing with one shock to another.”
Nick Bubb, the independent retail analyst who also sits on the panel, added: “Q4 23 saw a lacklustre performance with volume pressure in non-food categories and the real sense that consumers are tightening their belts. Whilst a lot depends on what we see happen over the next few weeks, there has already been a lot of discounting and this is likely to continue after Christmas as well. As for the outlook for the retail sector in general, much will depend on when the Bank of England feels able to start to lower interest rates, to relieve the pressure on ‘big ticket’ spending, although this is unlikely to be before the second half of 2025.”
There will also be pressure on [retail] consolidation, the report said, suggesting that buyout deals and mergers could increase.