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Sandra Halliday Published
June 30, 2025
The big question of whether UK consumers are likely to spend heavily ahead of their summer holidays, to spend a lot in the upcoming clearance sales, and to splurge for the back-to-school season seems to have been at least partially answered. They won’t.
The monthly GfK consumer confidence index was published Friday and it showed that sentiment is almost back where it was exactly a year ago following the results of the Brexit vote.
This time around it doesn’t seem to have been one overriding factor that’s making Britons wary of buying summer season fashion or refurbishing their homes. Instead it’s a mix of Brexit-linked uncertainty, plus rising inflation that’s outstripping low wage growth. Pile onto that still more uncertainty following the inconclusive general election result, and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for future spending prospects.
So what exactly did the GfK index show? It fell sharply to minus 10 in June after already having dropped to minus five in May. The June reading was it lowest level since the post referendum month of July 2025. It had plunged from minus one to minus 12 last July, which was the largest monthly fall for more than a quarter of a century.
Evidence that the general election result had an impact came from the major purchases index that plummeted from plus nine in May to a slim plus one in June, a fall that could only be linked to consumer nervousness after no single political party won a majority.
Unusually, all of the index’s components were down with Britons seeing the 12 months ahead as a time that will dent both their personal finances and the general economy.
And if consumers are spooked, then retailers must be too. “All this concern will worry the UK’s retailers, with this month’s plunge in the Major Purchase Index reflecting our increased caution over non-food spending and our softening appetite for debt,” said GfK’s Joe Staton.
“Strong consumer spending has propped up the economy since last June, but now the twin pressures of higher prices and sluggish wage growth are squeezing household finances and adding to widespread fears of a Brexit-induced economic slowdown.”
But there’s still a question mark around how long the uncertainty will last. A year ago, the July dip saw a quick turnaround as the expected recession didn’t happen and consumers carried on spending.
But analysts think this is less likely to be repeated this year as Brexit and other domestic issues invade consumer consciousness and contribute to a generally more pervasive concern over the future.
GfK’s index has been trending downwards generally since last July although it’s still higher than the long-term average of minus 8.7.